A potential crisis of great magnitude, and potentially more imminent than many anticipate, is China’s determination to assert control over disputed islands in the potentially energy-rich waters of the East and South China Seas. This has come in the face of stiffening resistance from Japan and the Philippines along with greater regional assertiveness by the United States, and has repercussions not just regionally, but potentially globally. A crisis in the East or South China Seas (essentially, western extensions of the Pacific Ocean) would pose a major peril because of the possibility of a U.S.-China military confrontation and the threat to Asian economic stability.
The likelihood of such a clash occurring has been on the rise in recent months, as China and its neighbors continue to ratchet up the bellicosity of their statements and bolster their military forces in the contested areas. Washington’s continuing statements about its ongoing plans for a “pivot” to, or “rebalancing” of its forces in the Pacific have only fueled Chinese intransigence and intensified a rising sense of crisis in the region. Leaders on all sides continue to affirm their country’s inviolable rights to the contested islands and vow to use any means necessary to resist encroachment by rival claimants. In the meantime, China has increased the frequency and scale of its naval maneuvers in waters claimed by Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, further enflaming tensions in the region.
Moderator:
Dr. Alexandre Mansourov, Visiting Scholar, U.S.-Korea Institute, SAIS, John Hopkins University
Speakers:
The Honorable Annette Lu - Vice President, Republic of China (Taiwan), 2000 - 2008
Dr. Evan Ellis - Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, National Defense University
