Will El Niño Move Markets? Assessing the Risks for Global Agriculture
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
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How will El Niño conditions affect global agricultural production, trade flows, and commodity prices, especially amid overlapping shocks from high energy prices and logistical disruptions? Effects on the regions and commodities most exposed to production risks are relatively well understood, but the more critical issue for markets is how shocks could be transmitted through the global trading system.
This policy seminar will examine the potential production, trade, and market implications of El Niño, with a special focus on the resilience of global agricultural markets, and identify key indicators that market participants should monitor in the months ahead. The discussion will explore how strong harvests in some regions could offset production shortfalls elsewhere, how stocks and trade flows could absorb supply disruptions, and how localized weather-related shocks could contribute to tighter global supplies and higher international prices. The seminar will also consider how El Niño-related risks interact with other pressures facing agricultural markets and what this means for the global food system’s ability to absorb supply shocks. The session will feature an expert panel discussion followed by an interactive Q&A with participants.
Opening Remarks
- Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary
Presentations
- Weston Anderson, Assistant Research Professor, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland (UMD)
- Shirley Mustafa, Economist, Markets and Trade Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Panelists
- Australia: Pat O’Shannassy, Chief Executive Officer, Grain Trade Australia
- Other speakers to be announced
Moderators
- Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary
- Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI